News July 2016

Slight increase in €-coin in July

 

  • In July, the €-coin indicator increased slightly for the second consecutive month, rising to 0.31 from 0.29 in June.
  • The qualitative indicators (especially those relating to businesses) and the favourable labour market trends under way outweighed the weakness in the industrial production indices. The fall in prices in the financial markets that initially followed the outcome of the referendum in the United Kingdom was partially reabsorbed in the second half of the month.

€-coin and euro-area GDP – July 2016

 

The most recent real-time figures are:

 

Month

€-COIN

July 2015

0.41

August 2015

0.43

September 2015

0.39

October 2015

0.36

November 2015

0.37

December 2015

0.45

January 2016

0.48

February 2016

0.47

March 2016

0.34

April 2016

0.28

May 2016

0.26

June 2016

0.29

July 2016

0.31

 

 

Click xls to download the excel file containing data.

For a more detailed analysis see the €-coin ANALYSIS section, for an overview of the recent behaviour of the series on which €-coin is based see the Euro area at a glance section. 

Click here to download the News Release

                                                                         €-coin in brief

€-coin is a real-time, monthly estimate of area-wide GDP growth, computed each month by the staff of the Banca d’Italia. It provides a single number summarizing the current economic picture for the euro area.

€-coin collates a large collection of statistical data (industrial production, business surveys, stock market and financial data, demand indicators, and more) and extracts the information that is relevant to forecast GDP. It tracks underlying GDP growth, preceding official GDP releases by several months. Essentially, the index:

(i) gives a monthly “smoothed” estimate of quarter-on-quarter GDP growth in the euro area;

(ii) highlights the underlying trend by adjusting the growth rate for short-term fluctuations and measurement errors; that is, the index figure is an indicator of the euro area’s actual growth momentum.

For further technical details on €-coin, see “New Eurocoin: Tracking economic growth in real time”, The Review of Economics and Statistics, No. 92, 1024-1034, available in the Bank of Italy working paper series (Temi di Discussione della Banca d’Italia) no. 631

http://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/temi-discussione/2007/2007-0631/en_tema_631.pdf

or CEPR Discussion Paper, No. 5633 http://www.cepr.org/pubs/new-dps/dplist.asp?dpno=5633.