News August 2014

 

€-coin continues to decline in August

 

  •  In August the €-coin indicator fell to 0.19 from 0.27 in July, continuing the trend that began last spring.

  •  The decline of the indicator reflects the weakening of economic activity in the second quarter and the recent worsening of consumer and business confidence, although the flattening of the interest rate curve made a slightly positive contribution.

 

€-coin: the Euro Area Economy in One Figure – August 2014

 

The most recent real-time figures are: 

 

Month

 

€-COIN

 

August 2013

 

-0.04

 

September 2013

 

0.12

 

October 2013

 

0.20

 

November 2013

 

0.23

 

December 2013

 

0.29

 

January 2014

 

0.31

 

February 2014

 

0.35

 

March 2014

 

0.38

 

April 2014

 

0.39

 

May 2014

 

0.31

 

June 2014

 

0.31

 

 

July 2014

 

 

0.27

 

August 2014

 

 

0.19

 

Click xls to download the excel file containing data.

For a more detailed analysis see the €-coin ANALYSIS section, for an overview of the recent behaviour of the series on which €-coin is based see the Euro area at a glance section. To see €-coin "in action" in a realtime simulation starting in December 2003 click here: See €-coin in real time
€-coin in brief
€-coin is a real-time, monthly estimate of area-wide GDP growth, computed each month by the staff of the Banca d’Italia. It provides a single number summarizing the current economic picture for the euro area.
€-coin collates a large collection of statistical data (industrial production, business surveys, stock market and financial data, demand indicators, and more) and extracts the information that is relevant to forecast GDP. It tracks underlying GDP growth, preceding official GDP releases by several months. Essentially, the index:
 
(i)                 gives a monthly “smoothed” estimate of quarter-on-quarter GDP growth in the euro area;
(ii)                highlights the underlying trend by adjusting the growth rate for short-term fluctuations and measurement errors; that is, the index figure is an indicator of the euro area’s actual growth momentum.
For further technical details on €-coin, see “New Eurocoin: Tracking economic growth in real time”, The Review of Economics and Statistics, No. 92, 1024-1034, available in the Bank of Italy working paper series (Temi di Discussione della Banca d’Italia) no. 631 http://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/econo/temidi/td07/td631_07/td631 or CEPR Discussion Paper, No. 5633 http://www.cepr.org/pubs/new-dps/dplist.asp?dpno=5633.