News August 2014


€-coin continues to decline in August


  •  In August the €-coin indicator fell to 0.19 from 0.27 in July, continuing the trend that began last spring.

  •  The decline of the indicator reflects the weakening of economic activity in the second quarter and the recent worsening of consumer and business confidence, although the flattening of the interest rate curve made a slightly positive contribution.


€-coin: the Euro Area Economy in One Figure – August 2014


The most recent real-time figures are: 






August 2013




September 2013




October 2013




November 2013




December 2013




January 2014




February 2014




March 2014




April 2014




May 2014




June 2014





July 2014





August 2014





Click xls to download the excel file containing data.

For a more detailed analysis see the €-coin ANALYSIS section, for an overview of the recent behaviour of the series on which €-coin is based see the Euro area at a glance section. To see €-coin "in action" in a realtime simulation starting in December 2003 click here: See €-coin in real time
€-coin in brief
€-coin is a real-time, monthly estimate of area-wide GDP growth, computed each month by the staff of the Banca d’Italia. It provides a single number summarizing the current economic picture for the euro area.
€-coin collates a large collection of statistical data (industrial production, business surveys, stock market and financial data, demand indicators, and more) and extracts the information that is relevant to forecast GDP. It tracks underlying GDP growth, preceding official GDP releases by several months. Essentially, the index:
(i)                 gives a monthly “smoothed” estimate of quarter-on-quarter GDP growth in the euro area;
(ii)                highlights the underlying trend by adjusting the growth rate for short-term fluctuations and measurement errors; that is, the index figure is an indicator of the euro area’s actual growth momentum.
For further technical details on €-coin, see “New Eurocoin: Tracking economic growth in real time”, The Review of Economics and Statistics, No. 92, 1024-1034, available in the Bank of Italy working paper series (Temi di Discussione della Banca d’Italia) no. 631 or CEPR Discussion Paper, No. 5633