News September 2016

The moderate recovery in €-coin continued in September


  • In September the €-coin indicator recorded a new, slight increase, to 0.34 from 0.32 in August, returning to the level reported in March.
  • The effects deriving from the recent improvement in the stock markets, after the high volatility seen in the preceding months, offset the fall in industrial production and the persisting weakness in price dynamics.

€-coin and euro-area GDP – September 2016


The most recent real-time figures are:




September 2015


October 2015


November 2015


December 2015


January 2016


February 2016


March 2016


April 2016


May 2016


June 2016


July 2016


August 2016


September 2016




Click xls to download the excel file containing data.

For a more detailed analysis see the €-coin ANALYSIS section, for an overview of the recent behaviour of the series on which €-coin is based see the Euro area at a glance section. 

Click here to download the News Release

                                                                         €-coin in brief

€-coin is a real-time, monthly estimate of area-wide GDP growth, computed each month by the staff of the Banca d’Italia. It provides a single number summarizing the current economic picture for the euro area.

€-coin collates a large collection of statistical data (industrial production, business surveys, stock market and financial data, demand indicators, and more) and extracts the information that is relevant to forecast GDP. It tracks underlying GDP growth, preceding official GDP releases by several months. Essentially, the index:

(i) gives a monthly “smoothed” estimate of quarter-on-quarter GDP growth in the euro area;

(ii) highlights the underlying trend by adjusting the growth rate for short-term fluctuations and measurement errors; that is, the index figure is an indicator of the euro area’s actual growth momentum.

For further technical details on €-coin, see “New Eurocoin: Tracking economic growth in real time”, The Review of Economics and Statistics, No. 92, 1024-1034, available in the Bank of Italy working paper series (Temi di Discussione della Banca d’Italia) no. 631

or CEPR Discussion Paper, No. 5633