News January 2016

In January €-coin continues to rise

 

  • The €-coin recorded a slight increase in January (to 0.48 from 0.45 in December), confirming the positive trend resumed in November 2015.
  • Contributory factors included the reduction in market interest rates and signs of an improvement in foreign trade, after the downturn recorded during the summer, offset by the slide in share prices.

 

€-coin: the Euro Area Economy in One Figure – January 2016

 

The most recent real-time figures are:

 

Month

€-COIN

January 2015

0.16

February 2015

0.23

March 2015

0.26

April 2015

0.33

May 2015

0.38

June 2015

0.39

July 2015

0.41

August 2015

0.43

September 2015

0.39

October 2015

0.36

November 2015

0.37

December 2015

0.45

January 2016

0.48

 

 

Click xls to download the excel file containing data.

For a more detailed analysis see the €-coin ANALYSIS section, for an overview of the recent behaviour of the series on which €-coin is based see the Euro area at a glance section. To see €-coin "in action" in a realtime simulation starting in December 2003 click here: See €-coin in real time

Click here to download the News Release

                                                                         €-coin in brief

€-coin is a real-time, monthly estimate of area-wide GDP growth, computed each month by the staff of the Banca d’Italia. It provides a single number summarizing the current economic picture for the euro area.

€-coin collates a large collection of statistical data (industrial production, business surveys, stock market and financial data, demand indicators, and more) and extracts the information that is relevant to forecast GDP. It tracks underlying GDP growth, preceding official GDP releases by several months. Essentially, the index:

(i) gives a monthly “smoothed” estimate of quarter-on-quarter GDP growth in the euro area;

(ii) highlights the underlying trend by adjusting the growth rate for short-term fluctuations and measurement errors; that is, the index figure is an indicator of the euro area’s actual growth momentum.

For further technical details on €-coin, see “New Eurocoin: Tracking economic growth in real time”, The Review of Economics and Statistics, No. 92, 1024-1034, available in the Bank of Italy working paper series (Temi di Discussione della Banca d’Italia) no. 631

http://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/temi-discussione/2007/2007-0631/en_tema_631.pdf

or CEPR Discussion Paper, No. 5633 http://www.cepr.org/pubs/new-dps/dplist.asp?dpno=5633.