News April 2008

€-coin: April 2008 update

  • €-coin remain broadly stable in April around 0,30% the same level reached in February  and March (0.29% and 0.28%, respectively): the prolonged decline in the indicator has thus come to an halt and growth momentum in the Euro area remained unchanged.

€-coin: the Euro Area Economy in One Figure – April 2008

 

 

 

The most recent real-time figures are:

 

 

Date €-coin Date €-coin
Jan-07 0.81 Sep-07 0.66
Feb-07 0.84 Oct-07 0.64
Mar-07 0.79 Nov-07 0.59
Apr-07 0.76 Dec-07 0.54
May-07 0.72  Jan-08 0.38
Jun-07 0.74  Feb-08 0.29
Jul-07 0.72  Mar-08 0.28
Aug-07 0.71  Apr-08  0.30
 

 

 

For a more detailed analysis see the €-coin ANALYSIS section, for an overview of the recent behaviour of the series on which €-coin is based see the Euro area at a glance section. To see €-coin "in action" in a realtime simulation starting in December 2003 click here: See €-coin in real time

Click here to  download the News Release

€-coin in brief
 
€-coin is a real-time, monthly estimate of area-wide GDP growth, computed each month by the staff of the Banca d’Italia. It provides a single number summarizing the current economic outlook for the Euro area. €-coin is obtained by collecting a large set of statistics (such as industrial production, surveys, stock market and financial data, demand indicators ) and extracting from it the information that is relevant to forecast future GDP. It tracks GDP growth anticipating official GDP releases by several months. It is a “smooth version” of GDP growth, that: 
  1. gives each month an early estimate of Euro area growth performance in terms of quarter on quarter changes in GDP
  2. sheds light on the underlying trend removing short run fluctuations and measurement errors from the growth rate: in this respect it is not only a forecast, but also a clearer indicator of the true growth momentum in the Euro area

For further technical details on €-coin, see “New Eurocoin: tracking economic growth in real time”, Banca d’Italia, Temi di Discussione N.631. http://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/econo/temidi/td07/td631_07/td631 or CEPR Discussion Paper, No. 5633. http://www.cepr.org/pubs/new-dps/dplist.asp?dpno=5633