News June 2009

 

€-coin: June 2009 update






  • €-coin rises in June for the fourth time in a row: to -0.61 from -0.89 in May, returning to the level of October 2008. This month's reading confirms that the Euro area underlying growth reached its lowest point in the first quarter of this year, but it still estimates a negative underlying growth rate for the area at about -2.5 on a yearly basis.
  • The slight improvement of €-coin reflects a further increase in business climate indicators and in manufacturing PMIs, a stabilization of stock prices and a still falling, but less negative turnout of industrial production in March and April (around -1.5% from a pace of reduction above 2% over the previous several months).
 €-coin: the Euro Area Economy in One Figure – June 2009
 

 

 

The most recent real-time figures are:

 



Date
€-coin
Date
€-coin
Mar-08
0,24
Nov-08
-0,84
Apr-08
0,18
Dec-08
-1,05
May-08
0,13
Jan-09
-1,21
Jun-08
0,06
Feb-09
-1,27
Jul-08
-0,09
Mar-09
-1,22
Aug-08
-0,28
Apr-09
-1,09
Sep-08
-0,47
May-09
-0,89
Oct-08
-0,65
Jun-09
-0,61

 


  
For a more detailed analysis see the €-coin ANALYSIS section, for an overview of the recent behaviour of the series on which €-coin is based see the Euro area at a glance section. To see €-coin "in action" in a realtime simulation starting in December 2003 click here: See €-coin in real time
€-coin in brief
€-coin is a real-time, monthly estimate of area-wide underlying GDP growth, computed each month by the staff of the Banca d’Italia. It provides a single number summarizing the current economic outlook for the Euro area. €-coin is obtained by collecting a large set of statistics (such as industrial production, surveys, stock market and financial data, demand indicators ) and extracting from it the information that is relevant to forecast future GDP trend. It tracks GDP growth anticipating official GDP releases by several months. It is a “smooth version” of GDP growth, that: 
  1. gives each month an early estimate of Euro area growth performance in terms of quarter on quarter changes in GDP
  2. sheds light on the underlying trend removing short run fluctuations and measurement errors from the growth rate: in this respect it is not only a forecast, but also a clearer indicator of the true growth momentum in the Euro area
For further technical details on €-coin, see “New Eurocoin: tracking economic growth in real time”, Banca d’Italia, Temi di Discussione N.631. http://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/econo/temidi/td07/td631_07/td631 or CEPR Discussion Paper, No. 5633. http://www.cepr.org/pubs/new-dps/dplist.asp?dpno=5633