News January 2010

€-coin: January 2010 update

  • In January €-coin has continued its upward trend, reaching 0.78% from 0.68 in December.

  • The rise of €-coin over the last few months has been mainly driven by the greater optimism of consumers and firms and by the gradual normalization of the conditions of financial markets. Industrial production and foreign trade have played a minor role.

€-coin: the Euro Area Economy in One Figure – January 2010


 

  

The most recent real-time figures are:

Date
€-coin
Date
€-coin
Oct-08
-0.65
Jun-09
-0.61
Nov-08
-0.84
Jul-09
-0.42
Dec-08
-1.05
Aug-09
-0.21
Jan-09
-1.21
Sep-09
0.07
Feb-09
-1.27
Oct-09
0.33
Mar-09
-1.22
Nov-09
0.55
Apr-09
-1.09
Dec-09
0.68
May-09
-0.89
Jan-10
0.78

 

Click xls to download the excel file containing data or csv to download the comma separated version. 

 

For a more detailed analysis see the €-coin ANALYSIS section, for an overview of the recent behaviour of the series on which €-coin is based see the Euro area at a glance section. To see €-coin "in action" in a realtime simulation starting in December 2003 click here: See €-coin in real time

€-coin in brief
€-coin is a real-time, monthly estimate of area-wide underlying GDP growth, computed each month by the staff of the Banca d’Italia. It provides a single number summarizing the current economic outlook for the Euro area. €-coin is obtained by collecting a large set of statistics (such as industrial production, surveys, stock market and financial data, demand indicators ) and extracting from it the information that is relevant to forecast future GDP trend. It tracks GDP growth anticipating official GDP releases by several months. It is a “smooth version” of GDP growth, that: 
  1. gives each month an early estimate of Euro area growth performance in terms of quarter on quarter changes in GDP
  2. sheds light on the underlying trend removing short run fluctuations and measurement errors from the growth rate: in this respect it is not only a forecast, but also a clearer indicator of the true growth momentum in the Euro area
For further technical details on €-coin, see “New Eurocoin: tracking economic growth in real time”, Banca d’Italia, Temi di Discussione N.631. http://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/econo/temidi/td07/td631_07/td631 or CEPR Discussion Paper, No. 5633. http://www.cepr.org/pubs/new-dps/dplist.asp?dpno=5633