News February 2015

€-coin continues its upswing

  • The €-coin indicator gained for the third straight month in February, rising from 0.16 to 0.23.
  • The rise was due in part to the moderate expansion of economic activity registered in the fourth quarter of last year and in part to a broad-based improvement in household and business confidence.

 

€-coin: the Euro Area Economy in One Figure – February 2015

 

The most recent real-time figures are:

Month

€-COIN

February 2014

0.35

March 2014

0.38

April 2014

0.39

May 2014

0.31

June 2014

0.31

July 2014

0.27

August 2014

0.19

September 2014

0.13

October 2014

0.08

November 2014

0.06

December 2014

0.11

January 2015

0.16

February

0.23

 
 
 
 
 
Click xls to download the excel file containing data.
 
For a more detailed analysis see the €-coin ANALYSIS section, for an overview of the recent behaviour of the series on which €-coin is based see the Euro area at a glance section. To see €-coin "in action" in a realtime simulation starting in December 2003 click here: See €-coin in real time
€-coin in brief
€-coin is a real-time, monthly estimate of area-wide GDP growth, computed each month by the staff of the Banca d’Italia. It provides a single number summarizing the current economic picture for the euro area.
€-coin collates a large collection of statistical data (industrial production, business surveys, stock market and financial data, demand indicators, and more) and extracts the information that is relevant to forecast GDP. It tracks underlying GDP growth, preceding official GDP releases by several months. Essentially, the index:
 
(i) gives a monthly “smoothed” estimate of quarter-on-quarter GDP growth in the euro area;
(ii) highlights the underlying trend by adjusting the growth rate for short-term fluctuations and measurement errors; that is, the index figure is an indicator of the euro area’s actual growth momentum.
For further technical details on €-coin, see “New Eurocoin: Tracking economic growth in real time”, The Review of Economics and Statistics, No. 92, 1024-1034, available in the Bank of Italy working paper series (Temi di Discussione della Banca d’Italia) no. 631 

http://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/temi-discussione/2007/2007-0631/en_tema_631.pdf

or CEPR Discussion Paper, No. 5633 http://www.cepr.org/pubs/new-dps/dplist.asp?dpno=5633.