News November 2015

The decline of the €-coin indicator comes to a halt in November


  • The €-coin indicator rose very slightly in November (to 0.37 from 0.36 in October) after declining for two consecutive months.
  • It was buoyed by the improvement in household and business confidence (recorded for the most part before the Paris terrorist attacks of 13 November), which outstripped the negative contribution of persistently low inflation.


€-coin: the Euro Area Economy in One Figure – November 2015


The most recent real-time figures are:




November 2014


December 2014


January 2015


February 2015


March 2015


April 2015


May 2015


June 2015


July 2015


August 2015


September 2015


October 2015


November 2015




Click xls to download the excel file containing data.

For a more detailed analysis see the €-coin ANALYSIS section, for an overview of the recent behaviour of the series on which €-coin is based see the Euro area at a glance section. To see €-coin "in action" in a realtime simulation starting in December 2003 click here: See €-coin in real time

Click here to download the News Release

                                                                         €-coin in brief

€-coin is a real-time, monthly estimate of area-wide GDP growth, computed each month by the staff of the Banca d’Italia. It provides a single number summarizing the current economic picture for the euro area.

€-coin collates a large collection of statistical data (industrial production, business surveys, stock market and financial data, demand indicators, and more) and extracts the information that is relevant to forecast GDP. It tracks underlying GDP growth, preceding official GDP releases by several months. Essentially, the index:

(i) gives a monthly “smoothed” estimate of quarter-on-quarter GDP growth in the euro area;

(ii) highlights the underlying trend by adjusting the growth rate for short-term fluctuations and measurement errors; that is, the index figure is an indicator of the euro area’s actual growth momentum.

For further technical details on €-coin, see “New Eurocoin: Tracking economic growth in real time”, The Review of Economics and Statistics, No. 92, 1024-1034, available in the Bank of Italy working paper series (Temi di Discussione della Banca d’Italia) no. 631

or CEPR Discussion Paper, No. 5633