|the real time indicator of the Euro Area economy|
The real-time €-coin estimates
In these files are reported, period by period, the real time estimates of €-coin. These estimates have been obtained simulating the situation one would have faced at the end of each month in terms of data availability.
For example, the following Figure indicates the data availability on October 25 2007, with the number of series ending at a given month. Of course the most updated series refer to October 2007, and comprise mainly Survey and Financial variables.
Technically we should call this a "pseudo-realtime execise" since we used the "final" data in the estimation and not the first releases that are not available to us for all data series. We do not think that this is a serious concern in our case:
(1) most daily and monthly data undergo only minor revisions or no revision at all;
(2) results for a "real" real time exercise conducted on a subset of monthly and daily statistics for which we have a complete realtime dataset show practically no change with respect to estimation on a dataset of "final" releases in which we only considered the various publication delays in the data;
(3) for GDP (the only quarterly series used) revisions are more relevant and not taking them into account might severely affect the "real time exercise". But before dismissing our "pseudo realtime" exercise as non informative one should considere that given the recent change in national account practices in the euro area - chain linking and different treatment of Financial Intermediation Services Indirectly Measured (FISIM) it not clear what meaning we could attach to a real time exercise that emcompasses such a sharp change (break) in the definitions and rules adopted by Eurostat to compute GDP.
To conclude, we believe for these reasons that the realtime estimates available here are a reliable guide for the actual performance of €-coin.
The €-coin dataset
Work in progress: here you will find a description of the statistics used in the construction of the indicator and downloadable xls, mat and csv files with the actual series.