News April 2017

€-coin declines in April

 

  • In April, the €-coin indicator fell for the second consecutive month, to 0.67 from 0.72 in March, nonetheless remaining at a cyclically high level.
  • The negative impact of the weakening of the industrial cycle outweighed the positive effects of the trend in share prices.

€-coin and euro-area GDP – April 2017

 

The most recent real-time figures are:

 

Month

€-COIN

April 2016

0.28

May 2016

0.26

June 2016

0.29

July 2016

0.31

August 2016

0.32

September 2016

0.34

October 2016

0.38

November 2015

0.45

December 2016

0.59

January 2017

0.68

February 2017

0.75

March 2017

0.72

April 2017

0.67

 

 

Click xls to download the excel file containing data.

For a more detailed analysis see the €-coin ANALYSIS section, for an overview of the recent behaviour of the series on which €-coin is based see the Euro area at a glance section. 

Click here to download the News Release

                                                                         €-coin in brief

€-coin is a real-time, monthly estimate of area-wide GDP growth, computed each month by the staff of the Banca d’Italia. It provides a single number summarizing the current economic picture for the euro area.

€-coin collates a large collection of statistical data (industrial production, business surveys, stock market and financial data, demand indicators, and more) and extracts the information that is relevant to forecast GDP. It tracks underlying GDP growth, preceding official GDP releases by several months. Essentially, the index:

(i) gives a monthly “smoothed” estimate of quarter-on-quarter GDP growth in the euro area;

(ii) highlights the underlying trend by adjusting the growth rate for short-term fluctuations and measurement errors; that is, the index figure is an indicator of the euro area’s actual growth momentum.

For further technical details on €-coin, see “New Eurocoin: Tracking economic growth in real time”, The Review of Economics and Statistics, No. 92, 1024-1034, available in the Bank of Italy working paper series (Temi di Discussione della Banca d’Italia) no. 631

http://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/temi-discussione/2007/2007-0631/en_tema_631.pdf

or CEPR Discussion Paper, No. 5633 http://www.cepr.org/pubs/new-dps/dplist.asp?dpno=5633.