€-Coin analysis: 30 November 2017

In May 2009, we started publishing a revised version of €-coin.
 
The revision has been made necessary by the major changes that have intervened in the statistics on which €-coin is constructed since its first publication in September 2007: industrial production, turnover and producer price indexes (amounting to roughly 30% of €-coin's database) were re-based and the new ATECO2007 classification has been implemented. Furthermore, the unprecedented depth of the recession that hit the euro area has induced a reassessment of the estimation procedure to keep track of the events.
Further information may be found in the box "The €-coin Indicator and the Economic Situation in the Euro Area" in section 3.2 of the Economic Bulletin of Bank of Italy, No. 53, pagg. 16-17, July 2009. The Bulletin may be found at the following address:
 

 

 

 

Month
€-COIN – OLD
€-COIN – REVISED
May 2008
0.37
0.13
June 2008
0. 41
0.06
July 2008
0. 34
-0.09
August 2008
0.17
-0.28
September 2008
0.04
-0.47
October 2008
0.00
-0.65
November 2008
-0.14
-0.84
December 2008
-0.15
-1.05
January 2009
-0.21
-1.21
February 2009
-0.63
-1.27
March 2009
-0.60
-1.22
April 2009
-0.45
-1.09
May 2009
 
-0.89
 
 
 
€-coin and the news content of the most recent data
With €-coin we can assess how the release of new data affects our real-time estimates of underlying GDP growth in the euro area. Each month the difference between the final official estimate and the preliminary estimate based on the dataset available at the time of the previous official estimate tells us the “surprise” contained in the data that have become available in the meanwhile.

In November the final estimate of €-coin is largely above our forecast.  

 

Official estimate

One step ahead forecast1

Jan – 14

0.31

0.31

Feb – 14

0.35

0.38

Mar – 14

0.38

0.45

Apr – 14

0.39

0.42

May – 14

0.31

0.43

Jun – 14

0.31

0.35

Jul -14

0.27

0.36

Aug - 14

0.19

0.35

Sep -14

0.13

0.28

Oct -14

0.08

0.26

Nov-14

0.06

0.15

Dec-14

0.11

0.25

Jan-15

0.16

0.31

Feb-15

0.23

0.32

Mar-15

0.26

0.33

Apr-15

0.33

0.25

May-15

0.38

0.49

June-15

0.39

0.44

July-15

0.41

0.49

August-15

0.43

0.47

September-15

0.39

0.36

October-15

0.36

0.30

November-15

0.37

0.31

December-15

0.45

0.46

January-16

0.48

0.51

February-16

0.47

0.46

March-16

0.34

0.33

April-16

0.28

0.29

May-16

0.26

0.28

June-16

0.29

0.30

July-16

0.31

0.33

August-16

0.32

0.38

September-16

0.34

0.37

October-16

0.38

0.36

November-16

0.45

0.51

December-16

0.59

0.60

January-17

0.68

0.66

February-17

0.75

0.63

March-17

0.72

0.66

April-17

0.67

0.70

May-17

0.60

0.62

June-17

0.62

0.51

July-17

0.63

0.66

August-17

0.67

0.62

September-17

0.71

0.60

October-17

0.72

0.58

November-17

0.84

0.70

1) The forecast has been computed jointly with the official release of the previous month