News December 2021

€-coin rises slightly in December     

  • €-coin rose slightly in December (from 0.16 to 0.21), nevertheless confirming the signs of a slowdown in economic activity overall in the fourth quarter.   
  • This month's small improvement mainly reflects the positive trend of some of the indicators of demand, including new car registrations. €-coin continues to be held back by the less favourable opinions of firms and households about the economy, linked to the marked increase in positive cases of COVID-19 and the rise in energy costs.
  • As of January 2021, a new version of the indicator has been released, which incorporates some revisions to the database and to the sample on which our estimates are based. More information has been included regarding services – a sector whose importance has increased in terms of value added in the euro area

€-coin and euro-area GDP – December 2021

 

The most recent real-time figures are:

 

Month

€-COIN

December 2020

0.38

January 2021

0.99

February 2021

0.96

March 2021

1.36

April 2021

0.92

May 2021

1.01

June 2021

0.96

July 2021

0.88

August 2021

0.98

September 2021

0.75

October 2021

0.71

November 2021

0.16

December 2021

0.21

 

 

Click xls to download the excel file containing data.

For a more detailed analysis see the €-coin ANALYSIS section, for an overview of the recent behaviour of the series on which €-coin is based see the Euro area at a glance section. 

Click here to download the News Release

                                                                         €-coin in brief

€-coin is a real-time, monthly estimate of area-wide GDP growth, computed each month by the staff of the Banca d’Italia. It provides a single number summarizing the current economic picture for the euro area.

€-coin collates a large collection of statistical data (industrial production, business surveys, stock market and financial data, demand indicators, and more) and extracts the information that is relevant to forecast GDP. It tracks underlying GDP growth, preceding official GDP releases by several months. Essentially, the index:

(i) gives a monthly “smoothed” estimate of quarter-on-quarter GDP growth in the euro area;

(ii) highlights the underlying trend by adjusting the growth rate for short-term fluctuations and measurement errors; that is, the index figure is an indicator of the euro area’s actual growth momentum.

For further technical details on €-coin, see “New Eurocoin: Tracking economic growth in real time”, The Review of Economics and Statistics, No. 92, 1024-1034, available in the Bank of Italy working paper series (Temi di Discussione della Banca d’Italia) no. 631