News December 2020

€-coin rises in December  

  • €-coin rose in December, to 0.38 (from 0.11 in November). The indicator remained negative from the start of the pandemic to October, when it increased markedly, reflecting the release of a very positive estimate of GDP for the third quarter.
  • The performance of the indicator in December reflects the resilience of manufacturing activity, especially in Germany, and the improvement in the expectations of households and firms, while there are signs of weakness coming from the service sector.
  • A new version of the indicator has been released, which incorporates some revisions to the database and to the sample on which our estimates are based. More information has been included regarding services – a sector whose importance has increased in terms of value added in the euro area

€-coin and euro-area GDP – December 2020

 

The most recent real-time figures are:

 

Month

€-COIN

December 2019

0.29

January 2020

0.37

February 2020

0.32

March 2020

0.13

April 2020

-0.34

May 2020

-0.24

June 2020

-1.05

July 2020

-1.22

August 2020

-1.59

September 2020

-1.45

October 2020

0.11

November 2020

0.11

December 2020

0.38

 

 

Click xls to download the excel file containing data.

For a more detailed analysis see the €-coin ANALYSIS section, for an overview of the recent behaviour of the series on which €-coin is based see the Euro area at a glance section. 

Click here to download the News Release

                                                                         €-coin in brief

€-coin is a real-time, monthly estimate of area-wide GDP growth, computed each month by the staff of the Banca d’Italia. It provides a single number summarizing the current economic picture for the euro area.

€-coin collates a large collection of statistical data (industrial production, business surveys, stock market and financial data, demand indicators, and more) and extracts the information that is relevant to forecast GDP. It tracks underlying GDP growth, preceding official GDP releases by several months. Essentially, the index:

(i) gives a monthly “smoothed” estimate of quarter-on-quarter GDP growth in the euro area;

(ii) highlights the underlying trend by adjusting the growth rate for short-term fluctuations and measurement errors; that is, the index figure is an indicator of the euro area’s actual growth momentum.

For further technical details on €-coin, see “New Eurocoin: Tracking economic growth in real time”, The Review of Economics and Statistics, No. 92, 1024-1034, available in the Bank of Italy working paper series (Temi di Discussione della Banca d’Italia) no. 631

http://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/temi-discussione/2007/2007-0631/en_tema_631.pdf

or CEPR Discussion Paper, No. 5633 http://cepr.org/active/publications/discussion_papers/dp.php?dpno=5633.