News October 2019

€-coin falls again in October 

 

  • The €-coin indicator fell further from 0.16 in September to 0.13 in October, continuing the trend under way for the last year.
  • The indicator was affected in particular by the weakness of manufacturing and the resulting pessimism of firms in the sector.  

€-coin and euro-area GDP – October 2019

 

The most recent real-time figures are:

 

Month

€-COIN

October 2018

0.54

November 2018

0.47

December 2018

0.42

January 2019

0.31

February 2019

0.24

March 2019

0.20

April 2019

0.18

May 2019

0.20

June 2019

0.14

July 2019

0.21

August 2019

0.18

September 2019

0.16

October 2019

0.13

 

 

Click xls to download the excel file containing data.

For a more detailed analysis see the €-coin ANALYSIS section, for an overview of the recent behaviour of the series on which €-coin is based see the Euro area at a glance section. 

Click here to download the News Release

                                                                         €-coin in brief

€-coin is a real-time, monthly estimate of area-wide GDP growth, computed each month by the staff of the Banca d’Italia. It provides a single number summarizing the current economic picture for the euro area.

€-coin collates a large collection of statistical data (industrial production, business surveys, stock market and financial data, demand indicators, and more) and extracts the information that is relevant to forecast GDP. It tracks underlying GDP growth, preceding official GDP releases by several months. Essentially, the index:

(i) gives a monthly “smoothed” estimate of quarter-on-quarter GDP growth in the euro area;

(ii) highlights the underlying trend by adjusting the growth rate for short-term fluctuations and measurement errors; that is, the index figure is an indicator of the euro area’s actual growth momentum.

For further technical details on €-coin, see “New Eurocoin: Tracking economic growth in real time”, The Review of Economics and Statistics, No. 92, 1024-1034, available in the Bank of Italy working paper series (Temi di Discussione della Banca d’Italia) no. 631

http://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/temi-discussione/2007/2007-0631/en_tema_631.pdf

or CEPR Discussion Paper, No. 5633 http://cepr.org/active/publications/discussion_papers/dp.php?dpno=5633.