News January 2020

€-coin rises in January

 

  • €-coin returned to levels last recorded in February 2019, rising from 0.16 in December to 0.25 in January, while continuing to point to modest growth in the euro area, as it has since the start of 2019.
  • The indicator benefited mainly from a) the favourable trend in interest rates, which more than offset the persistent pessimism of manufacturing firms and b) from the positive signals coming from the trend in household spending.  

€-coin and euro-area GDP – January 2020

 

The most recent real-time figures are:

 

Month

€-COIN

January 2019

0.31

February 2019

0.24

March 2019

0.20

April 2019

0.18

May 2019

0.20

June 2019

0.14

July 2019

0.21

August 2019

0.18

September 2019

0.16

October 2019

0.13

November 2019

0.15

December 2019

0.16

January 2020

0.25

 

 

Click xls to download the excel file containing data.

For a more detailed analysis see the €-coin ANALYSIS section, for an overview of the recent behaviour of the series on which €-coin is based see the Euro area at a glance section. 

Click here to download the News Release

                                                                         €-coin in brief

€-coin is a real-time, monthly estimate of area-wide GDP growth, computed each month by the staff of the Banca d’Italia. It provides a single number summarizing the current economic picture for the euro area.

€-coin collates a large collection of statistical data (industrial production, business surveys, stock market and financial data, demand indicators, and more) and extracts the information that is relevant to forecast GDP. It tracks underlying GDP growth, preceding official GDP releases by several months. Essentially, the index:

(i) gives a monthly “smoothed” estimate of quarter-on-quarter GDP growth in the euro area;

(ii) highlights the underlying trend by adjusting the growth rate for short-term fluctuations and measurement errors; that is, the index figure is an indicator of the euro area’s actual growth momentum.

For further technical details on €-coin, see “New Eurocoin: Tracking economic growth in real time”, The Review of Economics and Statistics, No. 92, 1024-1034, available in the Bank of Italy working paper series (Temi di Discussione della Banca d’Italia) no. 631

http://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/temi-discussione/2007/2007-0631/en_tema_631.pdf

or CEPR Discussion Paper, No. 5633 http://cepr.org/active/publications/discussion_papers/dp.php?dpno=5633.