News November 2020

€-coin rises in November  

 

  • €-coin rose in November to 1.18.
  • The rise in the indicator essentially reflects the inclusion in the calculation of the GDP data for the third quarter, for which the estimate became available after the release of the €-coin figure for October.

€-coin and euro-area GDP – November 2020

 

The most recent real-time figures are:

 

Month

€-COIN

November 2019

0.15

December 2019

0.16

January 2020

0.25

February 2020

0.28

March 2020

0.13

April 2020

-0.13

May 2020

-0.32

June 2020

-0.37

July 2020

-0.50

August 2020

-0.64

September 2020

-0.31

October 2020

-0.02

November 2020

1.18

 

 

Click xls to download the excel file containing data.

For a more detailed analysis see the €-coin ANALYSIS section, for an overview of the recent behaviour of the series on which €-coin is based see the Euro area at a glance section. 

Click here to download the News Release

                                                                         €-coin in brief

€-coin is a real-time, monthly estimate of area-wide GDP growth, computed each month by the staff of the Banca d’Italia. It provides a single number summarizing the current economic picture for the euro area.

€-coin collates a large collection of statistical data (industrial production, business surveys, stock market and financial data, demand indicators, and more) and extracts the information that is relevant to forecast GDP. It tracks underlying GDP growth, preceding official GDP releases by several months. Essentially, the index:

(i) gives a monthly “smoothed” estimate of quarter-on-quarter GDP growth in the euro area;

(ii) highlights the underlying trend by adjusting the growth rate for short-term fluctuations and measurement errors; that is, the index figure is an indicator of the euro area’s actual growth momentum.

For further technical details on €-coin, see “New Eurocoin: Tracking economic growth in real time”, The Review of Economics and Statistics, No. 92, 1024-1034, available in the Bank of Italy working paper series (Temi di Discussione della Banca d’Italia) no. 631

http://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/temi-discussione/2007/2007-0631/en_tema_631.pdf

or CEPR Discussion Paper, No. 5633 http://cepr.org/active/publications/discussion_papers/dp.php?dpno=5633.