News March 2020

€-coin decreases in March 

 

  • €-coin decreased in March, to 0.13, from 0.28 in February.
  • The indicator does not yet capture the full scale of the impact on economic activity of the ongoing pandemic, as only a small subset of the data available for March that were used for its construction refers to the latest developments. 
  • The reduction in €-coin observed so far only reflects the initial effects of the fall in share prices and the widespread deterioration in business and consumer confidence that occurred in the second half of March in connection with the spread of the pandemic across euro-area countries. 

 

€-coin and euro-area GDP – March 2020

 

The most recent real-time figures are:

 

Month

€-COIN

March 2019

0.20

April 2019

0.18

May 2019

0.20

June 2019

0.14

July 2019

0.21

August 2019

0.18

September 2019

0.16

October 2019

0.13

November 2019

0.15

December 2019

0.16

January 2020

0.25

February 2020

0.28

March 2020

0.13

 

 

Click xls to download the excel file containing data.

For a more detailed analysis see the €-coin ANALYSIS section, for an overview of the recent behaviour of the series on which €-coin is based see the Euro area at a glance section. 

Click here to download the News Release

                                                                         €-coin in brief

€-coin is a real-time, monthly estimate of area-wide GDP growth, computed each month by the staff of the Banca d’Italia. It provides a single number summarizing the current economic picture for the euro area.

€-coin collates a large collection of statistical data (industrial production, business surveys, stock market and financial data, demand indicators, and more) and extracts the information that is relevant to forecast GDP. It tracks underlying GDP growth, preceding official GDP releases by several months. Essentially, the index:

(i) gives a monthly “smoothed” estimate of quarter-on-quarter GDP growth in the euro area;

(ii) highlights the underlying trend by adjusting the growth rate for short-term fluctuations and measurement errors; that is, the index figure is an indicator of the euro area’s actual growth momentum.

For further technical details on €-coin, see “New Eurocoin: Tracking economic growth in real time”, The Review of Economics and Statistics, No. 92, 1024-1034, available in the Bank of Italy working paper series (Temi di Discussione della Banca d’Italia) no. 631

http://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/temi-discussione/2007/2007-0631/en_tema_631.pdf

or CEPR Discussion Paper, No. 5633 http://cepr.org/active/publications/discussion_papers/dp.php?dpno=5633.