News October 2018

€-coin remains high in October

 

  • In October €-coin increased slightly to 0.54 (from 0.52 in September), signalling the ongoing expansion in the euro area’s GDP in the last part of the year.
  • The indicator continues to be driven by gradually stronger price dynamics, notwithstanding the persistent decline in business confidence.

€-coin and euro-area GDP – October 2018

 

The most recent real-time figures are:

 

Month

€-COIN

October 2017

0.72

November 2017

0.84

December 2017

0.91

January 2018

0.95

February 2018

0.96

March 2018

0.89

April 2018

0.76

May 2018

0.55

June 2018

0.48

July 2018

0.49

August 2018

0.47

September 2018

0.52

October 2018

0.54

 

 

Click xls to download the excel file containing data.

For a more detailed analysis see the €-coin ANALYSIS section, for an overview of the recent behaviour of the series on which €-coin is based see the Euro area at a glance section. 

Click here to download the News Release

                                                                         €-coin in brief

€-coin is a real-time, monthly estimate of area-wide GDP growth, computed each month by the staff of the Banca d’Italia. It provides a single number summarizing the current economic picture for the euro area.

€-coin collates a large collection of statistical data (industrial production, business surveys, stock market and financial data, demand indicators, and more) and extracts the information that is relevant to forecast GDP. It tracks underlying GDP growth, preceding official GDP releases by several months. Essentially, the index:

(i) gives a monthly “smoothed” estimate of quarter-on-quarter GDP growth in the euro area;

(ii) highlights the underlying trend by adjusting the growth rate for short-term fluctuations and measurement errors; that is, the index figure is an indicator of the euro area’s actual growth momentum.

For further technical details on €-coin, see “New Eurocoin: Tracking economic growth in real time”, The Review of Economics and Statistics, No. 92, 1024-1034, available in the Bank of Italy working paper series (Temi di Discussione della Banca d’Italia) no. 631

http://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/temi-discussione/2007/2007-0631/en_tema_631.pdf

or CEPR Discussion Paper, No. 5633 http://cepr.org/active/publications/discussion_papers/dp.php?dpno=5633.