News September 2019

€-coin declines further in September​

 

  • In September the €-coin indicator decreased again (to 0.16, from 0.18 in August) but remained at levels that are compatible with a modest expansion in economic activity in the euro area.
  • The indicator continues to be held back by the persistent weakness of the industrial cycle and the trends in business confidence, especially in the manufacturing sector.

€-coin and euro-area GDP – September 2019

 

The most recent real-time figures are:

 

Month

€-COIN

September 2018

0.52

October 2018

0.54

November 2018

0.47

December 2018

0.42

January 2019

0.31

February 2019

0.24

March 2019

0.20

April 2019

0.18

May 2019

0.20

June 2019

0.14

July 2019

0.21

August 2019

0.18

September 2019

0.16

 

 

Click xls to download the excel file containing data.

For a more detailed analysis see the €-coin ANALYSIS section, for an overview of the recent behaviour of the series on which €-coin is based see the Euro area at a glance section. 

Click here to download the News Release

                                                                         €-coin in brief

€-coin is a real-time, monthly estimate of area-wide GDP growth, computed each month by the staff of the Banca d’Italia. It provides a single number summarizing the current economic picture for the euro area.

€-coin collates a large collection of statistical data (industrial production, business surveys, stock market and financial data, demand indicators, and more) and extracts the information that is relevant to forecast GDP. It tracks underlying GDP growth, preceding official GDP releases by several months. Essentially, the index:

(i) gives a monthly “smoothed” estimate of quarter-on-quarter GDP growth in the euro area;

(ii) highlights the underlying trend by adjusting the growth rate for short-term fluctuations and measurement errors; that is, the index figure is an indicator of the euro area’s actual growth momentum.

For further technical details on €-coin, see “New Eurocoin: Tracking economic growth in real time”, The Review of Economics and Statistics, No. 92, 1024-1034, available in the Bank of Italy working paper series (Temi di Discussione della Banca d’Italia) no. 631

http://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/temi-discussione/2007/2007-0631/en_tema_631.pdf

or CEPR Discussion Paper, No. 5633 http://cepr.org/active/publications/discussion_papers/dp.php?dpno=5633.