€-Coin analysis: 13 January 2021

In December 2020, we started publishing a revised version of €-coin​.
 
A new version of the indicator has been released, which incorporates some revisions to the database and to the sample on which our estimates are based. More information has been included regarding services – a sector whose importance has increased in terms of value added in the euro area. This is all the more relevant following the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, which has had more serious repercussions for this sector than for the rest of the economy. The starting date for the estimates was moved from January 1988 to January 2000 in order to make the sample more representative, given the significant changes that the economic systems have undergone in recent decades. Some of the time series in the original dataset have been eliminated to reduce the level of detailed information in relation to certain blocks of variables. This is in line with the evidence provided in the literature, according to which the precision of the estimates of common factors models (such as the one on which €-coin is based) is improved by the careful selection of data. Lastly, the new version of €-coin includes the GDP data released by Eurostat 30 days after the reference quarter (the ‘t+30’ estimate) as soon as it becomes available. The historical profile of the indicator is still consistent with the underlying trend of euro-area GDP growth and, at the same time, it improves the sensitivity of €-coin to the economic situation that has developed after the outbreak of the pandemic crisis. With the release of the December 2020 data, the historical series of the indicator calculated according to the new methodology starting from January 2000 is made available.
 
In May 2009, we started publishing a revised version of €-coin.
 
The revision has been made necessary by the major changes that have intervened in the statistics on which €-coin is constructed since its first publication in September 2007: industrial production, turnover and producer price indexes (amounting to roughly 30% of €-coin's database) were re-based and the new ATECO2007 classification has been implemented. Furthermore, the unprecedented depth of the recession that hit the euro area has induced a reassessment of the estimation procedure to keep track of the events.
Further information may be found in the box "The €-coin Indicator and the Economic Situation in the Euro Area" in section 3.2 of the Economic Bulletin of Bank of Italy, No. 53, pagg. 16-17, July 2009. The Bulletin may be found at the following address:
 
Month
€-COIN – OLD
€-COIN – REVISED
May 2008
0.37
0.13
June 2008
0. 41
0.06
July 2008
0. 34
-0.09
August 2008
0.17
-0.28
September 2008
0.04
-0.47
October 2008
0.00
-0.65
November 2008
-0.14
-0.84
December 2008
-0.15
-1.05
January 2009
-0.21
-1.21
February 2009
-0.63
-1.27
March 2009
-0.60
-1.22
April 2009
-0.45
-1.09
May 2009
 
-0.89
 
 
 
€-coin and the news content of the most recent data
With €-coin we can assess how the release of new data affects our real-time estimates of underlying GDP growth in the euro area. Each month the difference between the final official estimate and the preliminary estimate based on the dataset available at the time of the previous official estimate tells us the “surprise” contained in the data that have become available in the meanwhile.

The level of €-coin in December was below the forecast​​

 

Official estimate

One step ahead forecast1

Jan – 14

0.35

0.31

Feb – 14

0.40

0.38

Mar – 14

0.39

0.45

Apr – 14

0.35

0.42

May – 14

0.30

0.43

Jun – 14

0.29

0.35

Jul -14

0.29

0.36

Aug - 14

0.29

0.35

Sep -14

0.24

0.28

Oct -14

0.18

0.26

Nov-14

0.13

0.15

Dec-14

0.12

0.25

Jan-15

0.13

0.31

Feb-15

0.14

0.32

Mar-15

0.18

0.33

Apr-15

0.24

0.25

May-15

0.27

0.49

June-15

0.36

0.44

July-15

0.41

0.49

August-15

0.46

0.47

September-15

0.42

0.36

October-15

0.40

0.30

November-15

0.38

0.31

December-15

0.42

0.46

January-16

0.42

0.51

February-16

0.36

0.46

March-16

0.28

0.33

April-16

0.35

0.29

May-16

0.31

0.28

June-16

0.39

0.30

July-16

0.48

0.33

August-16

0.44

0.38

September-16

0.35

0.37

October-16

0.35

0.36

November-16

0.31

0.51

December-16

0.59

0.60

January-17

0.45

0.66

February-17

0.52

0.63

March-17

0.56

0.66

April-17

0.40

0.70

May-17

0.42

0.62

June-17

0.45

0.51

July-17

0.42

0.66

August-17

0.53

0.62

September-17

0.51

0.60

October-17

0.53

0.58

November-17

0.67

0.70

December-17

0.74

0.80

January-18

0.75

0.86

February-18

0.78

0.89

March-18

0.73

0.84

April-18

0.63

0.65

May-18

0.49

0.49

Jun-18

0.43

0.47

Jul-18

0.44

0.46

Aug-18

0.42

0.58

Sept-18

0.42

0.60

Oct-18

0.36

0.59

Nov-18

0.30

0.54

Dec-18

0.24

0.46

Jan-19

0.12

0.51

Feb-19

0.01

0.31

Mar-19

0.04

0.21

Apr-19

0.11

0.27

May-19

0.23

0.31

Jun-19

0.26

0.31

Jul-19

0.27

0.27

Aug-19

0.28

0.28

Sep-19

0.26

0.19

Oct-19

0.28

0.21

Nov-19

0.27

0.24

Dec-19

0.29

0.33

Jan-20

0.37

0.43

Feb-20

0.32

0.43

Mar-20

0.13

0.40

Apr-20

-0.34

0.26

May-20

-0.24

-0.21

June-20

-1.05

-0.53

July-20

-1.22

-0.36

August-20

-1.59

-0.09

September-20

-1.45

-0.09

October-20

0.11

-0.06

November-20

0.11

0.10

December-20

0.38

0.54

1) The forecast has been computed jointly with the official release of the previous month