News October 2022

€-coin declines more moderately in October

  • €-coin picked up somewhat in October (to stand at -0.31 from -0.73 in September), but remained in deeply negative territory.
  • The improvement mainly reflected the better-than-expected GDP figure for the third quarter and, to a lesser extent, industrial activity holding firm. €-coin has continued to be affected by the persistent contraction in business confidence.
  • As of January 2021, a new version of the indicator has been released, which incorporates some revisions to the database and to the sample on which our estimates are based. More information has been included regarding services – a sector whose importance has increased in terms of value added in the euro area

€-coin and euro-area GDP – October 2022

 

The most recent real-time figures are:

 

Month

€-COIN

October 2021

0.71

November 2021

0.16

December 2021

0.21

January 2022

0.01

February 2022

0.59

March 2022

0.77

April 2022

0.61

May 2022

0.95 

June 2022

0.88

July 2022

0.38

August 2022

0.23

September 2022

-0.73

October 2022

-0.31

 

 

Click xls to download the excel file containing data.

For a more detailed analysis see the €-coin ANALYSIS section, for an overview of the recent behaviour of the series on which €-coin is based see the Euro area at a glance section. 

Click here to download the News Release

                                                                         €-coin in brief

€-coin is a real-time, monthly estimate of area-wide GDP growth, computed each month by the staff of the Banca d’Italia. It provides a single number summarizing the current economic picture for the euro area.

€-coin collates a large collection of statistical data (industrial production, business surveys, stock market and financial data, demand indicators, and more) and extracts the information that is relevant to forecast GDP. It tracks underlying GDP growth, preceding official GDP releases by several months. Essentially, the index:

(i) gives a monthly “smoothed” estimate of quarter-on-quarter GDP growth in the euro area;

(ii) highlights the underlying trend by adjusting the growth rate for short-term fluctuations and measurement errors; that is, the index figure is an indicator of the euro area’s actual growth momentum.

For further technical details on €-coin, see “New Eurocoin: Tracking economic growth in real time”, The Review of Economics and Statistics, No. 92, 1024-1034, available in the Bank of Italy working paper series (Temi di Discussione della Banca d’Italia) no. 631